Going on a hiatus...

I'm sure you have noticed the lack of blogging over the past months and unfortunately that is the symptom of a blogger who has too many distractions firmly based in the real world! With completing a dissertation in mind I am going to hit the blog in the head for the next month or so and hope to come back to it refreshed and with some shiny new letters beside my name.

In the mean time, please go and vote in Iain Dale's best blog thingy, here's Chekov with the details!

What was the school thinking?

Pretty sadistic story over at The Times. A seven year old girl is tied up by school bullies and whipped with skipping ropes. What should the school do?

a) Inform the parents of all children involved of the nature of the incident.
b) Do feck all.
c) Inform the parents but neglect to tell the full details.

The headmaster took option c) and failed to tell the parents the nature of the incident. A dinner lady at the school, who had witnessed the incident, took it upon herself to tell the parents of the girl the details. The school has now suspended the dinner lady.

Is it just me, or have the school failed this child's safety, and their responsibility to be open and transparent with the parents?

Ben Kinsella and the Justice System

Last night, I watched a very disturbing yet moving documentary that followed Brooke Kinsella in the aftermath of the murder of her younger brother Ben, who was stabbed in London in July 2008. All too often the victims of knife crime become just another statistic that proves how society has torn itself apart, but the media attention and the determination of Ben's family to get justice has kept the shock of the murder firmly in the public eye. All too often, after a young person has been stabbed to death, something else catches the public attention and the family and friends are left to grieve the loss of their loved one.

It amazes me that Brooke and her family have handled themselves with such dignity in the face of such tragedy; it encourages me further still that they are now setting their sights on the justice system that is failing us all. Sentences that fit the crime, and also proper supervision for those releases should be a given but unfortunately that is not the case. One of those convicted of Ben's murder was under supervision by the police having been released from a young offender's institution - that says it all really. It is not the fault of the police, but of the entire justice system that deems it appropriate to release individuals who demonstrate traits that make them prone to re offend or commit violent acts.

The justice system needs to evolve, and evolve at a pretty fast pace,

So what about unionist realignment?

As the results of the European election are settling in there is no doubt that all the political parties will be sitting down and trying to settle on a policy direction to lead them into the forthcoming General Election. Whatever policy is settled on, there has to be some direct correlation between Westminster and the Assembly election in 2011; the need to tie the two together to compliment each other and show a dynamic and positive electoral approach. Although, as we have witnessed in many an election the words "dynamic" and "positive" do not often come into play. The words usually associated with a Northern Ireland election are "sectarian", "hypocrisy" and "terrorists". The coming of the TUV has raised pertinent questions of most obviously the DUP, but also of the UUP and their Conservative partners. So what about unionist realignment?

Turgon over on Slugger O'Toole has raised some fascinating questions through his own analysis of the UUP and has asked whether or not it may be a "dead cat bounce" that Jim Nicholson has just received. Only time will tell is the answer. The talk about realignment has resurfaced for the first time in a while, this time with the new element of Jim Allister's TUV. The argument goes, is there a need for two pro-devolution, pro-agreement and pro-power-sharing parties like the DUP and the UUP? To the outside observer it would be hard to differentiate between the two parties after 2007 as they both wish to implement devolved institutions under the auspices of the Belfast Agreement and the supplementary St. Andrews Agreement. Jim Allister has breathed life into anti-agreement unionism and that does put clear blue water between the TUV and its rivals in the DUP and UUP.

Adding more spice to the mix is the change that occurred in the St Andrews legislation that was passed through the House of Commons that changed the criteria for nominating First Minister - from largest designation with cross-community support to largest party. This has opened the door for a Sinn Fein First Minister in 2011. There will be great concern within the unionist parties of this outcome, even if some wish not to dwell on it.

It is with this in mind that a few have raised the prospect of some kind of DUP-UUP deal/merger. Alex Kane, in a recent column, indicated that he thought there was no room for a third unionist party:

I have long argued that there is room for two mainstream pro-Union parties in Northern Ireland. There isn’t room for three of them, though. So the next few months are going to be very interesting indeed within unionist political circles and I wouldn’t be surprised if the DUP lost a few MLAs to both the UUP and TUV in the process. Yet when all is said and done the fact remains that a three-way split within unionism is of benefit to no one except nationalism.

The million dollar question is which two pro-union parties should be battling it out? And along what lines will they divide?

My own take on it is that the DUP had to show that the risk they took in going in government with Sinn Fein had paid off and that devolution was working for Northern Ireland. Their confidence in the institutions should have resonated and engendered mutual feelings from the electorate; instead their confidence became arrogance and they were easily targeted by Allister. The UUP in turn should have focused on transparency and accountability of the government - but that is difficult to do when they are part and parcel of it. Comparable to the Irish government, where the minor government party, the Greens, suffered along with Fianna Fail. Sir Reg Empey and Michael McGimpsey were not in a position to make gains of the back of a faltering government. The TUV just pointed people to their TV sets and newspapers, Sinn Fein in government, 108 individuals getting paid handsomely for not a lot of work and the corrupt nature of politicians. The TUV were free to set themselves in whatever attacking position they wanted.

When it comes to 2011, the TUV will present themselves as the conscience of the electorate at Stormont; they will be there to oppose republicanism and upset the applecart. On other other hand the DUP and UUP want devolution to work, and they will have to make it work with Sinn Fein.

The Big Man is Back

The Rev. Ian Paisley has raised his head politically for the first time in many months and has issued a clear challenge to Jim Allister and the TUV to "come and get it" in reference to his North Antrim Westminster constituency. The Rev. Paisley has this to say:

"He is very welcome to come and get a hiding in North Antrim," he said.

Mr Paisley said although the TUV polled well in the European elections, his party was still defeated by the DUP.

He said: "The election was won because he didn't get a seat.

"He stole the seat from me, Jim Allister had not political breath except for what he took from me."

This is a mouth-watering prospect. On Monday, after polling nearly 70,000 first preference votes at the European election, Jim Allister made it clear he favoured running in his home constituency of North Antrim. There was also tallies that signalled that Jim Allister out polled the DUP and UUP in North Antrim thus making it a fertile TUV ground. The prospect of a head to head between Allister and Paisley is something we can all look forward to. The only thing in question is which Paisley will contest it? Senior or Junior? Or is there a dark horse in (what's the story) Mervyn Storey?

British & Irish Lions: Ferris Out

Stephen Ferris is on the plane home after damaging ligaments in his knee, and Ryan Jones will be replacing him. As a huge Ulster and Ferris fan I am devastated for him. In the last two Lions games, against the Golden Lions and Free State Cheetahs, he was superb. I think both the home nations, and the rugby world at large, have now been introduced to Ferris (1F) and they have taken note.

Here's to a quick recovery Stephen!

Northern Ireland Euro Results

After months of speculation the results are in.

Northern Ireland's three Members of the European Parliament are Sinn Fein's Baibre De Brun, UCUNF's Jim Nicholson, and the DUP's Diane Dodds... in that order.

So now that the dust has settled, that begs the question who won? It's hard to know where to start but the runaway winner in this election is undoubtedly the apathy party. Turnout fell from 51.7% to 42.9% . Only two years ago at the Assembly election 62.31 per cent of the electorate cast a vote. With 19.41%, or 210,300 fewer voters, that's hardly a ringing endorsement of the province's politicians.

Turning now to the parties and personalities which actually stood, it looks like a pretty good day for Sinn Fein. They topped the poll and were the only party to exceed the quota on the first count. Granted they lost votes compared to 2004, but this is largely in line with the decrease in turnout. But, and there's always a but, Mary Lou did loose, halving their Euro representation, and firmly establishing them as a Northern Ireland based party (or six counties based if you prefer).

Staying on the Nationalist Side of the fence, the only challenge the SDLP posed is giving me something to write about. I don't think they were ever going to win a seat. Unionism split itself almost exactly three ways but the system being STV, 2 unionists were easily returned. Although understandably the SDLP didn't campaign with a slogan "We aren't going to win but give us a vote". It may have however been preferable to "When We Win You Win".

Jumping over to the unionists, UCUNF finished ahead of the DUP in its first electoral test, which I believe it has passed, although the grade is more of the order of a 'C' than 'A*'.

Mr Nicholson dropped 10,000 votes. In the case of Sinn Fein and SDLP I can excuse this on the basis of turnout, but as I understand it the UCUNF project is about reaching out to people who haven't been voting, not increasing this group.

Furthermore they still did have fewer votes than the DUP, who suffered a dreadful result ( more later). The gap has been closed, but only by DUP loss rather than UCUNF gain.

Increasing the percentage of the vote, and making quota however, are big enough PR victories to ensure that UCUNF survives. Not losing votes to the DUP for the first time in the last decade must have been a nice bonus. If UCUNF supporters get taken in by their own spin, believing that they have achieved a landslide and the DUP are dead in the water, then disaster some time in the future is not an impossibility.

TUV have done well. Very well in fact. Over the past few months his opponents have been claiming he'd be lucky to poll as well as Bob did in '99, and many many comments on Slugger O'toole suggest that his opposition to Stormont means he is a pseudo republican. This election established that ordinary people do not share such a view.

Best case scenario for TUV was that Allister would outpoll one of his unionist rivals, and win a seat on their transfers. That did not happen.

On the other hand, Allister has now been freed to antagonise the DUP at Westminster and Stormont elections, and we know there will be at least one of those in the next 12 months. The TUV were an 'untested electoral force' last week, now they are the province's fifth party, with speculation that they could get up to 15 MLAs. The challenge to Jim Allister is to keep his momentum, and it remains to be seen whether he can do that. If he does stand in North Antrim in the General, he needs a breakthrough to survive. The DUP may assist this in running the incumbent's son. If he wins, I think he has achieved the best possible result imaginable for his party.

The DUP made topping the poll a priority, then didn't even come close. Couple that with losing around half of your vote, and scraping in on the final count, and even the most ridiculous of DUP spinners sitting in cyberspace would struggle to deny that it was an unmitigated disaster for their party. At least they have the humility to admit it.

One overlooked fact is that the DUP have lumbered themselves with a dreadful candidate who now has a profile. We haven't heard much from Ms Dodds since her election, so presumably the party hacks have her silenced. We were treated to the sight of the childish antics of Ms Dodds refusing to shake her colleague and coalition partner's hand at the count centre, but she'll presumably be kept out of the media for a long time.

There was also a peculiar sight of Alrene Foster at the count centre complaining about the dangers of split unionist votes.

Returning briefly to the issue of topping the poll, the DUP seemed to think such was a necessity for unionism, what is to come for unionism now that a unionist hasn't topped the poll? Is it all doom and gloom, or were the DUP lying?

The last set of candidates were the non aligned. The greens did well, being the only party which stood last time to actually increase its numbers of votes.

The Alliance, in my opinion underperformed. I had imagined a core vote circa 35,000 that would come out and vote. Perhaps the Greens will eventually overtake them to be the largest non designated party, or maybe they're another NIWC, time will tell. The last point to make is that that if the TUV can take forward its momentum, then the Alliance will fall back to the sixth largest party, though not through any fault of their own.

Euro Poll: Unionist Round-Up

The election is over, but the extrapolating of results and voting patterns will be examined in detail over the coming weeks and months. The DUP have the most to think about after Diane Dodds' devastating performance. Following on from my summary of the three unionist contenders, here is my thoughts on the outcome and the areas they now need to address. Be kind, I am tired will probably re-read this in the morning and acknowledge that it may not make sense!

Jim Allister:

It is an oxymoron in stating that Jim has won this election without actually retaining his seat; but he has won and the shock waves will be deep and felt far and wide in Northern Ireland. Jim Allister's slogan of "Principle, Integrity, Experience" and his track record in Europe have stood him well, and I don't think anyone would question his commitment. From a standing start against the established political parties Jim has demonstrated that there is a niche for his brand of politics.

Where to now? Jim has indicated his intention to run for North Antrim in the General Election, and he will need to target constituencies and have a cohort of capable and credible candidates. I would expect to see Keith Harbinson, of Dromore by-election fame, be one of those candidates. Jim's "P45" jibe at the DUP MLAs may unsettle a few in constituencies where, according to the Euro poll, the DUP have been decimated.

Diane Dodds:

I never expected a collapse of the DUP vote to the extent that Diane delivered, and the repercussions will have to be significant if they are to seriously address the problem posed by Jim Allister. As noted previously, making topping the poll their priority and warning of the dangers of Sinn Fein topping the poll, were ill-advised. Firstly, the DUP narrative of them being the only one capable of defeating Sinn Fein has been proven to be false. Secondly, the arrogance post- St. Andrews up until now, has been from the same cloth as David Trimble's UUP. People have not warmed to it at all.

Where to now? The DUP have one thing the other parties do not - they can reshuffle their front line team in the Stormont Assembly. They can take pro-active measures to end their double-jobbing and present a a fresh start. Jim Allister's push to end mandatory coalition is very important to his agenda, the DUP need to work towards this end (along with the TUV and UUP) and in essence attempt to pull the rug from beneath Jim's feet.

Jim Nicholson:

A respectable result for the UCUNF MEP, and it must now make him one of the longest serving MEPs in Brussels. A small increase in percentage vote will be of some comfort to the UUP and the Conservatives, and with the success of the Conservatives across the UK (particularly in Wales) they can take a day to celebrate and reflect on the victory.

Where to now? Back to reality. The DUP have suffered their worst ever European poll, but the UUP do not appeared to have benefited electoral from that (at the moment) in terms of getting voters back from them. Whereas Jim Allister has sliced a a huge chunk off the DUP. Shadow SOS Owen Paterson has already talked about accountability and the problems of the current system of government, the UUP should build on this, both in terms of opposition and on the end of mandatory coalition. This can improve Northern Ireland.

Thoughts?

Euro Poll: Straight Forward?!

Firstly (and most importantly!) I don't do election predictions, and I do not plan to start doing them anytime soon. The European poll on Thursday will be interesting for many reasons; particularly on the unionist side of things between Jim Allister, Diane Dodds and Jim Nicholson. Looking at each in turn I want to say a few words.

Jim Allister:










Jim has certainly lived up to expectations, both in his competence and his aggressive stance against the DUP. He is by a country mile the most able candidate and his record of being the 5th best British MEP in terms of transparency, waste and attendance is something Northern Ireland can be proud of. From what I can tell, the more exposure Jim has been afforded during this campaign, the bigger impact he has had. When he has been part of panel discussions it has been akin to shooting fish in a barrel. I personally want to see more of Jim Allister and I have a feeling that even if he loses his seat he will be still be a a part of the political landscape.


Diane Dodds:
Where do I start? When scripted and has a modicum of self-control she comes across very well (like in the PEB). When she is moved out of her comfort zone and into a panel debate she is severely and quite easily outmaneuvered by Jim Allister. If the stories are to be believed and the DUP did not want her on live panel discussions, then it is easy to see why. Slugger has the low down on the most recent one. In saying that the DUP have the brand name and party machinery behind them to counteract this. All the talk of topping the poll is irrelevant - increase the total unionist vote and return two unionist seats.




Jim Nicholson:



It was destined to be a difficult campaign with the new UCUNF branding and the "Vote for Change" logo for the 20 year plus UUP veteran, and the Lady Hermon incident would not have helped steady the nerves. His own performances have not been as woeful as Diane Dodds, but at the same time he has got no where near Jim Allister, and there has not been anything special to speak of. The one thing I think has gone wrong is all the talk of topping the poll and building up expectations, when getting returned is an achievement in a competitive field.


Just because I don't do predictions doesn't mean you don't have to! Let me know what you think and how the respective campaigns have been going. Does anyone actually care about Europe? What will the turnout be like? Have you had your door knocked?

Roll on Thursday, let the voters decide!

Expenses - Is Stormont Next?

If you haven't lived in a cave for the last fortnight then you will be fully aware of the outcry over the Westminster expenses scandal, and it's implications are far reaching. From Duck-Island to cleaning the moat there are many deplorable acts that have came to light, and many MPs have signaled their intention to stand down at the next election. It was during a conversation I had the other night that it was suggested that the expenses of our MLAs up at Stormont will come under scrutiny next; it would be the logical extension of investigative journalism surely? Maybe.

The problem with the Northern Ireland media (bar a notable few aka David Gordon) is that they do not want to rock the boat to that extent. They should, and they should be encouraged to do so by the public. It is good news, therefore, that there is a commission to investigate rules and regulations into MLA expenses, and with due reason:

In the last financial year MLAs' expenses came to more than £7.5m. The majority of the money, £6.8m, was for Office Cost Allowances, which is used to pay staff and rent offices.

MLAs are allowed to rent offices from family members, a practice which is banned under Westminster's expenses rules.

MLAs are also allowed to rent offices without any independent assessment of rental charges, a practice the SSRB said should change.

The £6.8 million that is spent on OCA is the most open to manipulation, and the public should be assured that a) they have been provided an accessible, fully functioning constituency office, b) that it is adequately staffed and that c) the MLA is paying the going rate for staff and office.

There is little value in going over stories that have been documented before, but full disclosure by parties would be a start on this issue. If a party cannot stand over the expenses of one of its MLAs, then they need to make clear why or deal with them.

UCUNF - The Week That Was

It has been a funny old week for the Ulster Unionists and their electoral alliance with the Conservative Party. Chekov has done a round up highlighting the nonsense coming from the Rev. Coulter, MLA for North Antrim, that is as indefensible as it is stupid. It just goes to show the indiscipline that is still present with the UUP ranks, and what a difficult job their press office must have in dealing with 'individuals'. The most serious issue of this week has been the actions of the UUP's only member of Parliament, Lady Sylvia Hermon.

Let me start by first setting out my own stall. I am certainly not anti-Tory by any means, and I have been supportive of the UUP-Conservative link up in general and given them fair wind on this blog. I also have no hesitation in addressing areas of the proposed deal that I think are unwise and will work against the relationship. With that off my chest let us have a look at Lady Hermon:

"At the present time, I can't see myself standing under a Conservative banner," she said.

"If my party chooses to move to call themselves by a different name, I'm terribly sorry and terribly disappointed by that, but I remain an Ulster Unionist," she said.

"That was certainly my mandate and I've loved serving the people of North Down.

"They have stood by me through the most difficult of times and if they choose and wish me to serve them I would do my very best to do that."

Bobballs has stated his disappointment with the UUP leadership in how they have reacted to Lady Hermon ie a get out of jail free card. My disappointed also lies with the leadership - they should have prepared for this. It was no secret that Lady Hermon was unhappy with the whole negotiations and deal from the start, and if that is the case then you should deal with it head on instead of rebuff and delay the inevitable. The timing is absolutely awful for Jim Nicholson.

The UUP political hacks can sneer all they like at Lady Hermon, but in the public arena, she was the last remaining example of a successful Ulster Unionist. She was respected and listened to by her electorate, and she could hold her own against the increasingly dominant DUP. The public at large will be scratching their heads at the actions of Sir Reg on this one, as it appears extremely counter-intuitive. Why go to such lengths to alienate your only MP? Your only remaining successful brand of the UUP? Lady Sylvia is viewed as a progressive and untainted Ulster Unionist, kind of the direction the UUP should be heading in.

Now for Jim Nicholson's campaign. I've been a bit disinterested the last few weeks, as I've had a lot of work to get done, therefore, by and large, I've been in the shoes of a normal punter. The posters are dire; it is hard to make out the 'Nicholson' and I have not been able to make out the party name once when driving past one. Dodds and Allister dominate, in terms of statement and visibility.

One thing that Jim Nicholson is now honour-bound to do is to publish his MEP expenses in the same manner as Jim Allister has done (also see Slugger). I somehow doubt that will happen, but I would view it as crucial to getting some 'trust' back into politics.

Lady Sylvia...

Back in February I had this to say:

"Maybe more crucially, the public and members alike are anxious to see the reaction of Lady Sylvia Hermon. On a personal note I would judge her more objective assessment of the current offers on the table over those presenting the report. Like many walks of life, if you buy into something and want to implement it, you yourself may miss the wider picture ie could be a hint of bunker syndrome present."

Duncan Shipley-Dalton has this to say on Slugger:

"I have to say I think Sylvia has been characteristically very straight up about the whole thing. I am a Tory supporter and on the mainland I vote for them. I was supportive of the whole UCUNF (apart from the ridiculous mess that is the name) idea and would like to have seen a closer UUP Tory link up. Now it seems to me the whole idea is in the crapper. I have been underwhelmed by the public reaction to the idea and I am beginning to very seriously doubt that it will do any electoral good in the EU poll and even less in the general election. The idea that the UUP will now sacrifice it’s one and only MP for the limited benefit of the link up seems to me to be daft. It would have been good if Sylvia would have been able to live with it and it could have been given a go but obviously that is not the case. Now it is a matter of the UUP making a straight choice. Either it can have the MP or the pact but not it seems both. Personally given the options and what I have seen of the UCUNF pact so far I would keep the MP and jettison the pact and I say that as someone who would like to see Cameron in No 10 next time out. I think that unfortunately the UUP will now have to make a hard choice."

Chekov sets his sights:

She has chosen to do so during an election campaign, accompanying her comments with a bizarre rant about Conservative expense claims. Given that Hermon's press conference was called to explain her own embarrassing over-payments and considering that, as a New Labour groupie, her own favoured Great British party has proved astonishingly insensitive and unresponsive to public anger, it was a particular unfortunate choice of topic.

If Hermon intends to contest the next election, and if she has any sense of integrity, she will align herself explicitly with the Labour party.

Saying that this is a major problem for Sir Reg is an understatement. I'll write a more detailed post at the weekend when I get a bit more time, but any comments are, as ever, more that welcome.

Has Northern Ireland's Consociational Agreement Worked?

For once I am not going to give my opinion straight away, this is more of a straw poll exercise. I would like to know what people think of Northern Ireland's consociational system of government.

1. Positives
2. Negatives
3. Has it worked?
4. Looking to the future.

Based on Lijphart's system of government aimed at getting a working government in an ethnically disputed region, the Belfast Agreement (1998) and St. Andrew's Agreement are consociational in nature. I don't think there are any wrong answers, it all depends on perception!

Thanks

Politcal Parties and Membership

In this day and age joining a political party is an act that sets someone apart from their fellow man; an act that is often a bit of an embarrassment to the person and an issue often shrugged off when brought up in front of friends, family or (God help us) work colleagues. It is widely accepted that the days of mass membership of political parties is over. More and more people get involved over single issues or issues following a particular theme. For those people, political parties' wide ranging policies are often of little interest. Take something like climate change for example. If you are an ardent environmentalist, would you consider joining the Conservatives for their 'Vote Blue, Go Green' climate policy? It could be a persuader to vote for them, but most likely not to join. Would you not see your role as more crucial to a lobby or pressure group?

For a new generation of voter, what do they want to gain from joining a political party? Some join a party because they support its agenda. Others join because they want to be apart of a reform agenda within a party. Some simply want a career in politics. All of them are valid and welcome reasons for joining.

My own perspective is by no means objective, as my own personal experience of being an active member has shaped how I view and understand the many dynamics of a party structure, from the power relationships to the policy formulation. One of the most frustrating aspects is the slow pace of change and the ability to factionalise over the smallest of issues. It is said that inter-unionist spats between the UUP, DUP and TUV put off voters, the same can be said of people entering a party to find it simmering with internal disputes and personality clashes. It leads to disillusionment and alienation from the reasons they joined, and can lead them to believe that voicing an opinion is frowned upon. On a positive note, you will find people thinking the same thing, and eager to test their own capabilities. It can be excilerating, scary and risky as well as good fun.

This is a bit of a rant. It would be unfair to give explicit examples of events that have shaped my outlook, as there are always two sides of a coin. I am a firm believer in saying what you see, and making sure at the end of the day you can hold your head high in the safe knowledge that you have not sold yourself for an easy existence.